America’s experiment with online age verification is producing an unexpected result: people are changing where and how they access the internet.
The debate over online age verification in the United States is often presented as a simple question:
Can states stop minors from accessing adult websites?
New research suggests the answer is much more complicated.
A 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research study examined what happened after US states introduced age-verification laws affecting major adult websites.
The researchers found that restrictions reduced overall time spent on adult websites by approximately 10%.
But that does not mean the remaining 90% simply disappeared.
A substantial portion shifted elsewhere.
Why It Matters
Since 2023, 25 US states had implemented age-verification laws that caused major adult websites, including Pornhub, to restrict access for local users.
That has created an enormous natural experiment.
Instead of asking people what they might do, researchers could examine what actually happened to online behavior after restrictions were introduced.
The findings reveal an important problem for policymakers:
Internet regulation can change behavior without necessarily eliminating the underlying activity.
The Details
According to the NBER study, restrictions reduced overall time spent on adult sites by roughly 10%.
But the remaining activity was distributed across several channels.
For every 100 hours previously spent on major adult sites:
- Around 50 hours remained accessible through noncompliant sites.
- Around 30 hours continued through VPN-based circumvention.
- Around 10 hours shifted from compliant sites to noncompliant sites.
- Around 10 hours disappeared entirely.
That final number is important.
It suggests that regulation did have a measurable effect.
But it also demonstrates how quickly internet users can adapt when access to a major platform changes.
The VPN Problem
VPNs are one of the biggest complications in America’s age-verification debate.
A user can potentially route internet traffic through another location, making a website believe the user is somewhere else.
That creates a technical problem for state governments.
If a law says an adult website must verify users in a particular state, the website needs a reasonably reliable way to determine where that user actually is.
But modern internet architecture was not designed to make physical location perfectly obvious.
The issue has become serious enough that litigation is now challenging some attempts to regulate VPN-based circumvention.
One Country, Many Different Rules
America’s approach is fundamentally different from Britain’s.
The UK has a national regulatory framework through the Online Safety Act and Ofcom.
The US has a state-by-state system.
That means an adult-content company can face one requirement in one state and another requirement somewhere else.
For businesses operating nationally, this creates compliance costs.
Companies may have to decide whether to:
- Build different systems for different states.
- Deploy the strictest standard nationally.
- Restrict access in some jurisdictions.
- Outsource verification to specialized providers.
Each option has financial and consumer implications.
The Privacy Question
There is another issue that could become just as important as age verification itself:
What information does a website need to collect to prove someone is over 18?
A system could potentially require an identity document.
Another could estimate age.
Another could use a trusted third party.
Another could use device-level information.
Every method involves different trade-offs between accuracy, privacy, convenience and cost.
That is why the American debate isn’t simply about blocking minors.
It is increasingly becoming a debate about digital identity infrastructure.
What This Means for the Adult Industry
Age verification could fundamentally change the economics of adult websites.
Traffic is one of the industry’s most important assets.
If users face additional friction, some will stop visiting.
Others may move to competitors.
Some may use VPNs.
And others may seek websites that operate outside the regulatory framework.
That means regulation can potentially redistribute market share rather than simply reduce demand.
The NBER findings provide evidence that this substitution effect is already happening.
What’s Next
The US is unlikely to resolve the age-verification question quickly.
More states can introduce legislation.
Existing laws can be challenged in court.
Technology companies can develop new identity and age-assurance systems.
And the federal government could eventually become involved.
The biggest question is whether America eventually moves from a fragmented state-by-state model toward a more standardized national framework.
Until then, the internet will continue to operate with something unusual:
different rules for the same website depending on where the user is sitting.
FAQ
How many US states were covered by the NBER study?
The study examined restrictions associated with 25 states that had implemented age-verification laws since 2023.
Did the restrictions eliminate adult-site usage?
No. The study found an approximately 10% reduction in overall time spent on adult sites.
What happened to the remaining activity?
Researchers found substantial substitution toward noncompliant websites and VPN-based circumvention.
Why are VPNs important?
VPNs can make it more difficult for websites to determine a user’s actual location.
Could this become a national US system?
That remains a policy question. The current landscape is primarily state-driven.
Related Reading
- Pornhub Is Under Investigation in Britain
- Who Gets Your Data When You Prove You’re 18 Online?
- AI Is Rewriting the Adult Entertainment Business